CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-21T16:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32090/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T10:26Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1224.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1298.56 Acceleration: -3.93574 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 149926.53 Duration in days: 1.7352608 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -3.94 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 708.5 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/07/2024 Time: 10:26 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 31.32 hour(s)
Difference: 9.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-07-22T12:29Z
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